04/10/2004

Science Update

I got this email from my brother today. It's a correction for the Mt. Saint Helen Math equation he did for me yesterday.

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Mad Scientist Convention

"Oops! I added a few extra zeros. There its 5E+9 = 5,000,000,000 not 5,000,000,000,000, that number is 5 trillion. Better make changes on your blog or some scientist will roast us. You see why we use short hand notation."   J.
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So, now that we've got that straightened out, we can all go back to enjoying our infinitesimal fraction *(in geologic time) of this human day.


Logic vs. Superstition Debate


* added 2017.02.17

03/10/2004

Mt. Saint Helen Math

Mt. Saint Helen Web Cam
Someone at Bluesky was wondering about how Mt. Saint Helen's latest eruption fits into the passage of geologic time. So I asked my brother. I always ask my brother when I need an equation. Several years ago I asked him what my total life earnings as a poet figured out to be as an hourly wage. The answer was 8 cents an hour. Yes. Anyway, on to Mt. Saint Helen.


Mt. Saint Helen and Mt. Rainier

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"Here are my calculations:

We actually don’t need to bring humans into the process, unless one thinks that our evil ways with the body politic have upset the mountain again.


Mt. Saint Helen's new dome peeking up over crater edge

Contrary to the early century Christian scholars who thought the earth was 144,000 years old, the scientist think its more like 5 billion years old. Putting in the zeros the number looks like this 5,000,000,000,000. Of course we scientist don’t like to waste things much even if they are zeros, either do Norwegians, so we use a short notation and write 5E+9, which means a five followed by nine zeros after it. The E stands for exponent, what ever that is. So if there is a 70% change of Mt. Saint Helens getting pissed off this year and we assume that she only get pissed on very occasionally, for you see she is a cool mountain, lots of snow, and so the chance of it getting pissed off over the age of the earth is this…

Let’s just first figure out what percent one year is compared to the age of the earth. That is easy..

1 year/ age of earth = 1/5,000,000,000,000

Now we are wasting zeros again, so we write this the stingy Norwegian math way 1/5E+9 was is approximately 0.5E-9. We use the minus sign after the E to denote how many zeros in front of the nine. So one year equals 50E-9 % of the earth life. Notice we moved the zeros around converting from fraction of 0.5 to percent 50%.

So then multiple that by 70%, which reduces it to a chance of say about 35E-9% which is a very small number by our normal measures


Satellite image of Mt. Saint Helen crater and new dome

But this calculation has a flaw because the mountain has not been around since the beginning of the earth. Mt. Saint Helens is more like a zit on the nose of the earth. When it gets squeezed, out comes earth blood and puss, which for the earth is red lave and white ash.

So what do humans have to do with all this? Humans have been waking around the zit for about 5E+3 years which is about 30 seconds of the history of the entire earth.

On a related subject I thought I might write a book for kids. Here is the title:

"Mathematical Ecology For 9 Year Olds or How I Learned To Get Even With My Big Sister"
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Little brothers! They never really do grow up. I can count change.

02/10/2004

Bushman Flub n Fumble


President Pinch Face

Watching George Bush, the President of the United States, flub and fumble like he did during the debate was not only sad, it was chilling. He clearly hasn't got what it takes in an unscripted situation. He manages okay speaking from notes, to hand picked followers. But this is not why we elect a President. The President must be able to speak for all of us in difficult situations. For this Bush is exceptionally UN-qualified. He even flubbed and fumbled at the United Nations. People wanted to work with him but when they wouldn't immediately co-sign his plans for a pre-emptive strike, he sighed. He squirmed. He fussed. He pouted. He picked up his toys and went home. And he started his war on his own. Now he tells us, "it's hard work"; that he, "sees it on TV". He pleads he's doing the best job he can, "but it's hard work folks. Everybody knows it HAARD WORK". Christ! The guy's not only a dummy. He's a menace!

His campaign promise to us is that he will, "stay the course". That's not comforting. That means George Bush is incapable of keeping up with reality, on the ground, as more is revealed. One plan fits all. Overkill. Some policy! Whether or not he gets re-elected, his oil grab has already shamed and left us with a painful legacy of distrust, ridicule, resentment, hatred and unnecessary suffering.

And at home Georgie took the healthy budget he inherited from Clinton and turned it into an unprecedented national debt of $142 billion. And that debt is increasing by $177 million per day. That's $7.4 million per hour or $122,820 per minute. $122,820 a minute! Every sixty seconds the United States is another $122,820 in the hole! I don't know about you, but I sure could use a minute's worth of money from Bush's war chest. So much for Republicans being for small government. His solution? Privatize. Let Corporate Amerika run the show...like Cheney's Enron. Lovely.

Over 1,000 Americans have already been killed in Iraq and over 12,000 Americans have been treated for illness, non-combat injury and combat injury (7,000) since March of 2002. That toll rises daily. And at least 10,000 Iraqi citizens have been killed so far and hundreds of thousands more wounded. There never were any WMDs but Bush was too antsy to wait and find that out the peaceful way. He didn't want to wait.

An action is judged by its results. Findings show that Saddam Hussein never was a member of al-Qaida. But he was a lynch pin in the stability of the Middle East. He kept his own warring factions at home, under one roof. Now he's gone, a sovereign nation is in shambles, and Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaida, the man who did mastermind the 9-11 attack, is still free and planning more attacks. And Iraq now is a hot house for terrorists and the price of oil has never been higher. Just today al-Qaida released a new tape urging Muslim youth to "take the initiative like the United States and wage a preventive war". Bush should be flattered. Imitation is the highest compliment. But talk about sad? Here's what's really sad. Dead Iraqi children are now the poster children inspiring militants everywhere. What does Georgie do? He sticks in his thumb, pulls out a turd and says, "It's HAAAARD WORK."

Listen to the man himself. He says it best. It's vintage George. http://www.pleasurecaptains.com/favor/howsmall.html

I'm voting for Kerry. He's not just the other choice. He's the better choice.

01/10/2004

Bush in a NUTshell

Here's a fun little compilation from last night's debate which isolates that folksy charm Dubya's supporters are so fond of. How Bush Did.

30/09/2004

Presidential Debate #1

Kerry did a great job in the debate tonight. He knows the facts, understands the realities we are facing, and delivered real answers. He was dignified. His presence and intelligence commanded respect.

Bush was rigid, jittery, dull-witted and out of touch with reality. He relied on rhetoric, sentiment and one-liners. His only promise, more of the same. Bush doesn't know the difference between a rope and a snake. I have to hand it to him though. This evening he did seem to realize that he was in the presence of the better man. I bet Bush's speech writers and coaches were writhing in their seats watching Slow Boy sweat and squirm in front of the cameras.

Obviously Bush is coached to stick to one idea, that he is a Great Leader because he does "not change his approach under any circumstances". So I ask you this. The car you are in is headed over the cliff yet the driver insists on "staying the course". Do you let him stay at the wheel or do you peel him off and get back the car back on the road? I peel him off.

Second Hand Wedding

The Obscure Store just posted a link to about a wedding between a Omaha Goodwill employee and a customer. He met her while she was working at the store, they dated, fell in love and decided to get married, at the Goodwill. They also decided to purchase as many wedding items from the store as possible. They did a good job of it finding, among other things, her wedding dress, the cake topper, guest book, champagne glasses, and the invitation kit. Many of the items were still in their original wrapping.

I'd forgotten until I read the story that I went to second hand store wedding one time. However, the bride and groom were not as organized as the Brozacs from Omaha. There was no guestbook. In fact, there wasn't really any guests. Besides a couple of Goodwill employees, I was the only person who attended. I loved it. I think everything must have been second hand including the cake which looked like one of those day old delights that finds its way to charitable organizations. It was near closing time so the ceremony, held unceremoniously in one of the isles, was brief. There was no special decorations. The Justice read the parts, they nodded, we smiled benignly and it was over. They cut the cake, the moment dissolved and we all went our separate ways. I never did find out their names but they didn't seem to mind at all.